BP Lubricants Half-Year Guidance 2024
Trading Conditions
Brent averaged $84.97/bbl in the second quarter 2024 compared to $83.16/bbl in the first quarter 2024.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $1.89/mmBtu in the second quarter compared to $2.25/mmBtu in the first quarter 2024.
The bp refining marker margin averaged $20.6/bbl in the second quarter compared to $20.6/bbl in the first quarter 2024.
Guidance to this Quarter
- Upstream production in the second quarter is now expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, with production broadly flat in oil production & operations and slightly lower in gas & low carbon energy.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an adverse impact of around $0.1 billion, including declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average following a strong result in the first quarter.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have a favorable impact in the range of $0.1 – 0.3 billion, including the impact of price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE.
- In the customers and products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be impacted by the following factors:
- customers – stronger fuels margins and convenience performance, and seasonally higher volumes.
- products – significantly lower realized refining margins, expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.5 – 0.7 billion mainly relating to weaker middle distillate margins and narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials, and a higher level of turnaround activity, partially offset by the absence of the first quarter Whiting refinery outage of around $0.5 billion. The oil trading result is expected to be weak following a strong result in the first quarter.
